CSS With A CSP

Pakistan Affairs · CSS 2024 · Question 5

Global warming presents an existential threat to states like Pakistan. Examine the far-reaching impacts of global warming on Pakistan and propose a model of economic development that aligns with environmental protection.

By CSP Qasim Farooq

Understanding the question

Explain climate impacts and propose an economic model that protects development and nature.

Thesis

Pakistan needs development that raises productivity while reducing climate exposure, resource waste and pollution; environmental protection is part of economic resilience.

Outline

  1. Climate hazards meet existing vulnerabilities
  2. Effects on water, farming and livelihoods
  3. Health, cities and public finances
  4. A productive and resilient development model
  5. Financing, fairness and implementation

Introduction

Global warming threatens Pakistan by increasing risks to lives, production and public finances. Its effects become more severe where poverty, unsafe construction and weak services leave people exposed. Environmental protection therefore cannot be treated as a luxury to consider after growth. A suitable development model must increase incomes while protecting the water, land, infrastructure and human capabilities on which future growth depends.

Climate impacts follow several connected pathways

Water becomes less predictable

The Indus system depends on rainfall, snow and glacier processes that vary across time and location. Changes in these processes can alter seasonal flows and increase uncertainty. Floods and shortages can occur in the same country without contradiction because water may arrive at the wrong time or place.

This does not mean every glacier will change uniformly or that all river flows will immediately decline. Policy must respond to observed local conditions, reliable monitoring and a range of plausible risks.

Agriculture faces both output and income shocks

Heat can reduce crop yields, affect livestock and raise irrigation demand. Floods can destroy standing crops, seed, equipment and roads. A farmer may then lose the next season as well, because damaged assets and debt prevent recovery.

The effect spreads beyond farming. Food prices rise, processing firms lose inputs and households spend more of their income on basic needs. Climate vulnerability therefore becomes a problem of nutrition, inflation and industrial supply.

Heat and disasters damage human development

Extreme heat affects outdoor workers and people living in poorly ventilated housing. Floodwater can contaminate drinking supplies and disrupt health services. School closures, displacement and damaged facilities can interrupt learning long after the immediate emergency.

Women, children, older people and low-income households often face greater recovery barriers. Equal exposure to a hazard does not mean equal ability to withstand it.

Public finances absorb repeated losses

Damaged roads, irrigation works and utilities require repair. Relief and reconstruction compete with other public spending, while disrupted production can reduce revenue and export earnings. Repeated rebuilding of the same vulnerable assets creates a cycle in which scarce development funds restore yesterday's capacity instead of adding tomorrow's.

Evidence: The 2022 post-disaster assessment estimated damages of about US$14.9 billion, economic losses of about US$15.2 billion and recovery and reconstruction needs exceeding US$16 billion. Damages, lost economic activity and rebuilding needs are different measures; they should not all be added into one loss figure.

A suitable model combines productivity with resilience

Make agriculture more productive per unit of water

Investment should connect suitable crops, better irrigation services, soil management, seed quality and agricultural advice. Storage and market access can reduce losses after harvest. The objective is higher and more reliable value from land and water, rather than maximum water withdrawal.

Groundwater rules and incentives also matter. Subsidised extraction can encourage waste even when efficient equipment is available. Reform needs affordable alternatives and protection for small producers.

Build an efficient and reliable energy system

Cleaner energy, efficient buildings and better networks can reduce pollution and exposure to imported fuel costs. The comparison should include the full cost of reliable electricity, including transmission, balancing and maintenance. Adding generation without solving distribution and payment problems will not create a sustainable system.

Design cities around safer daily life

Land-use decisions should discourage building in high-risk locations and protect drainage routes. Public transport, shaded streets, water services and waste management can improve health and productivity while reducing environmental harm.

Case in point: Protecting a natural drainage channel can prevent losses across many properties. Its economic value may be greater than the short-term revenue from allowing construction over it.

Treat ecosystems as productive assets

Wetlands, forests, watersheds and mangroves can support livelihoods and reduce particular risks. Restoration should match the local ecology and community needs. Counting trees planted is weaker evidence than measuring survival, ecosystem function and sustained benefits.

Implementation must be financially and socially credible

  • Risk-screen investment: Planning and finance departments should assess climate exposure before approving major public assets.
  • Maintain what already exists: Routine drainage, irrigation and road maintenance can prevent costly failure.
  • Use transparent support: Protect vulnerable households during changes in energy, water and land-use policy.
  • Match finance to purpose: Seek concessional and grant finance where appropriate, while assessing repayment and maintenance costs honestly.
  • Publish useful outcomes: Track service continuity, avoided losses, water productivity and access, rather than announcements alone.

Critical assessment

Pakistan's limited contribution to global emissions supports its claim for fair international assistance. It does not remove domestic responsibility for unsafe planning or inefficient resource use. Likewise, climate finance can support change but cannot substitute for competent institutions. The strongest model combines external cooperation with accountable decisions at home.

Conclusion

Climate-compatible development is a practical economic strategy. Pakistan needs farms that use water productively, cities that manage heat and floods, and infrastructure that continues working under stress. Growth becomes more durable when it protects the resources and people that make production possible.

References

Continue your Pakistan Affairs preparation